When 1–3% Becomes 13%: The Numbers That Are Turning Heads in Garden Center E-Commerce

Something important is happening in the Independent Garden Center industry — and the numbers are beginning to prove it.

What was once viewed as a cautious experiment in online plant sales is rapidly becoming something much larger: a measurable shift in consumer buying behavior, retailer expectations, and the future structure of horticultural commerce. Early financial reporting from the E-Commerce Connect Program is showing results that are significantly outperforming original projections — and in some cases, by a staggering margin.

When the program launched, expectations were intentionally conservative. Forecasts estimated that e-commerce would represent approximately 1–3% of total sales for participating Independent Garden Centers when compared against traditional brick-and-mortar revenue.

Those projections have now been eclipsed. According to mid-Spring reporting from one of the program’s largest participating growers, Willoway Nurseries, Independent Garden Centers participating in both their wholesale program and the E-Commerce Connect drop-shipping network are seeing e-commerce sales account for 13% of total sales.

Not 1 or 3%. Thirteen.

For an industry that has historically questioned whether consumers would buy plants online from local garden centers at scale, the implications are hard to ignore.

Even more telling: the leading Independent Garden Center currently participating in the program has already surpassed $80,000 in e-commerce sales this year alone — and the season is still unfolding.

These are not hypothetical forecasts anymore.These are real transactions. Real consumers. Real momentum.

And perhaps most importantly, these numbers are emerging during the earliest phase of adoption. What we are witnessing now resembles the opening chapter of a much broader industry evolution. The innovators and early adopters — the retailers willing to rethink convenience, fulfillment, local delivery, and digital merchandising — are beginning to separate themselves from the market.

Consumers are sending a clear signal: they want the convenience of online shopping without sacrificing the trust, quality, and local connection of their favorite Independent Garden Center.

That combination matters.

For years, major national retailers dominated the convenience conversation online. But the emergence of localized e-commerce infrastructure, integrated fulfillment models, and grower-supported drop-shipping is beginning to level the playing field for Independent Garden Centers across the United States.

The momentum now building inside the E-Commerce Connect ecosystem suggests this is no longer about simply “having a website.” It is about creating an entirely new retail channel for the horticulture industry — one that operates alongside traditional in-store experiences rather than replacing them. And the market appears ready.

If innovators defined the first phase of this movement, the next phase may belong to the early majority — the retailers watching closely from the sidelines as results continue to compound.Because once an industry begins seeing double-digit revenue percentages tied directly to e-commerce performance, the conversation changes.

This is no longer about whether garden center e-commerce works. The conversation is rapidly becoming how fast the industry will adapt to it.